Asian Journal Of Social Pharmacy

Abstract: Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors, so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market. Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test, Granger causality test and co-integration test. Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market, OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential. Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive, the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%, 5.86% and 5.90%, respectively.

Key words: quantitative analysis, OTC drugs, prediction of the scale of market, unit root test, granger causality test, co-integration test